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WASDE - Rice

Mar 10, 2010

RICE: No changes are made on the supply side of the U.S.

2009/10 rice supply and use balance.  On the use side,

domestic and residual use is unchanged from a month ago;

however, all rice exports for 2009/10 are lowered 1 million

cwt to 100 million.  Rough exports are raised 2 million cwt,

while combined milled and brown exports (on a rough-

equivalent basis) are lowered 3.0 million.  Long-grain

exports are lowered 1.0 million cwt to 69.0 million, while

combined medium- and short-grain exports are unchanged

at 31.0 million.  All rice ending stocks are projected at 40.8

million cwt, 1.0 million above last month, and up 10.4 million

from 2008/09.

The 2009/10 long-grain season-average price is projected at

$12.70 to $13.20 per cwt, down 20 cents on each end of the

range from last month.  The combined medium- and short-

grain price is projected at $17.45 to $17.95 per cwt, down 5

cents on each end of the range.  The all rice season-

average price is forecast at $13.90 to $14.40 per cwt, down

15 cents on both ends of the range.  The price projections

are based on the National Agricultural Statistics Service

reported prices through mid-February and expected prices

the remainder of the marketing year.  Global prices have

weakened over the last month due in part to a softening in

import demand and an increase in available supplies of the

major exporters.

Global 2009/10 rice production, consumption, trade, and

ending stocks are increased from last month.  The 4.0-

million-ton increase in world production to 440.3 million is

due mostly to increases for India and Bangladesh, up 2.5

million and 1.6 million, respectively.  The production changes

for both India and Bangladesh are based on information

received in March from the Agricultural CounselorÂ’s office in

New Delhi and official in-country statistics.  Small production

increases are made in the European Union, Cuba, and

Malaysia.  Production is lowered slightly in Venezuela, Chile,

and the Philippines.  World consumption is projected at a

record 440.6 million tons, up 3.4 million from last month, and

up 1 percent from 2008/09.  The increase in consumption is

due mostly to increases for India, Bangladesh, and China. 

VietnamÂ’s 2009/10 exports are raised to 5.75 million tons,

while ChinaÂ’s exports are lowered to 0.85 million.  Imports

are raised for the Philippines, Malaysia, Nigeria, and South

Africa, but lowered for Saudi Arabia and India.  Global

ending stocks are lowered 1.6 million tons to 90.9 million

due mostly to a reduction in ChinaÂ’s stocks.  ChinaÂ’s

2009/10 ending stocks are estimated at 40.8 million tons,

down 4.4 million from a month ago, and down about 0.5

percent from 2008/09.  The changes in ChinaÂ’s supply and

use balance for 2008/09 and 2009/10 are based mostly on a

report from the Agricultural CounselorÂ’s office in Beijing. 

The report raised domestic consumption in 2008/09 and

2009/10 by 4.0 million tons and 1.0 million, respectively. 

Partially offsetting the decline in ChinaÂ’s stocks are

increases for India, Bangladesh, Malaysia, and the

Philippines.