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WASDE - Beans/Oilseeds

Mar 10, 2010

OILSEEDS:  U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2009/10 are

projected at 190 million bushels, down 20 million from last

month.  Soybean production is estimated at 3.359 billion

bushels, down 2 million from the January estimate as

reported in the March Crop Production report.  Soybean

exports are raised 20 million bushels to a record 1.420

billion reflecting the strong export pace to date.  Soybean

crush is raised 10 million bushels to 1.730 billion based on a

lower projected soybean meal extraction rate.  Total soybean

meal use remains unchanged as higher projected exports

are offset by reduced domestic disappearance.  Soybean oil

stocks are projected higher due to increased production and

lower domestic food use.  Soybean oil used for biodiesel is

unchanged at 2.2 billion pounds despite a drop in production

in January resulting from the loss of the $1.00 per gallon

blending tax credit at the end of 2009.  Offsetting production

gains are expected later in the year as diesel suppliers

increase blending to meet biodiesel mandates.

 

The U.S. season-average soybean price range for 2009/10

is narrowed to $8.95 to $9.95 per bushel.  The soybean meal

price is projected at $280 to $310 per short ton compared

with $270 to $320 previously.  The soybean oil price is

projected at 33.5 to 36.5 cents per pound, unchanged from

last month.

 

Global oilseed production for 2009/10 is projected at 435.3

million tons, up 1.6 million tons from last month.  Higher

projections for soybeans, peanuts, rapeseed, and palm

kernel are only partly offset by lower cottonseed and

sunflowerseed production.  Global soybean production is

raised 0.9 million tons to 255.9 million.  Soybean production

for Brazil is projected at a record 67 million tons, up 1 million

from last month based on higher yields and harvested area. 

Soybean production for Paraguay is reduced due to lower

harvested area.  Global cottonseed production is reduced

mostly due to reductions for China and Uzbekistan. Other

changes include increased rapeseed production for

Australia, increased peanut and sunflowerseed production

for China, increased palm kernel production for Indonesia,

and reduced sunflowerseed production for South Africa. 

Palm oil production was increased for Indonesia for both

2008/09 and 2009/10.

 

Global oilseed ending stocks for 2009/10 are projected at

71.8 million tons, up 0.9 million from last month.  Soybeans

account for most of the change with increases for Argentina,

Brazil, and India only partly offset by lower projected U.S.

stocks.

 

SUGAR:  Projected 2009/10 sugar supply is decreased

30,000 short tons, raw value, from last month, due to lower

cane sugar production for Texas.  On the use side, deliveries

of sugar are reduced 50,000 tons, based on pace to date.

 

For Mexico, projected 2009/10 sugar supply is increased

50,000 metric tons, raw value, from last month.  Production

is decreased 200,000 tons based on continued reports of

weather-reduced sugar yields.  Imports are increased

250,000 tons based on the import quota announced by

Mexico in February.  On the use side, consumption of sugar

is reduced 300,000 tons to account for increased

substitution by corn-based sweeteners.  Mexico=s ending

stocks of sugar are increased 350,000 tons.

DISCLAIMER: This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation by Commodity & Derivative Adv. The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Read Entire Disclaimer.

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