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WASD - Wheat

Jan 12, 2012

WHEAT: U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2011/12 are projected slightly lower this month as

reductions in expected domestic use mostly offset higher projected exports. Food use is

projected 5 million bushels lower based on flour production data recently reported by the North

American Millers’ Association for July-September 2011. Feed and residual use is projected 15

million bushels lower as December 1 stocks, reported in the January Grain Stocks, indicate

lower-than-expected disappearance during September-November. Seed use is raised 4 million

bushels based on the winter wheat planted area reported in Winter Wheat Seedings. Projected

exports are raised 25 million bushels based on the pace of sales and shipments to traditional

markets. Increases for Hard Red Winter, White, and Soft Red Winter wheat more than offset a

reduction for Hard Red Spring wheat. Ending stocks are projected 8 million bushels lower at

870 million. The 2011/12 season-average farm price is lowered 10 cents per bushel on each

end of the range to $6.95 to $7.45 per bushel.

Global wheat supplies for 2011/12 are projected 2.7 million tons higher with production raised

for Kazakhstan, Brazil, and Russia. Kazakhstan production is raised 1.5 million tons as nearly

perfect growing season weather is reflected in a new record yield. Production is raised 0.8

million tons for Brazil, in line with the latest government estimate. Production for Russia is

raised 0.2 million tons reflecting the latest official estimate.

Lower 2011/12 projected exports for Australia are more than offset by increases for the United

States and Russia. Global consumption is raised with a 1.0-million-ton increase in expected

domestic disappearance in Kazakhstan where record supplies will be difficult to store and

maintain. Global ending stocks for 2011/12 are projected 1.5 million tons higher at 210.0

million.

DISCLAIMER: This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation by Commodity & Derivative Adv. The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Read Entire Disclaimer.

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