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WASD - Rice

Jan 12, 2012

RICE: The U.S. 2011/12 rice crop is estimated at 185.0 million cwt, down 3.1 million from the

previous estimate due primarily to lower yields. Average yield is estimated at 7,067 pounds per

acre, down 100 pounds per acre from last month, but an increase of 342 pounds per acre from

2010/11. Harvested area is estimated at 2.618 million acres, down 6,000 acres from the

previous estimate. Long-grain rice production is estimated at 116.4 million cwt, down 1.1 million

from last month, and combined medium- and short-grain production is lowered nearly 2.0 million

to 68.6 million. Rice imports for 2011/12 are unchanged from last month.

The National Agricultural Statistics Service’s (NASS) Rice Stocks reported total rough rice

stocks at 146.9 million cwt as of December 1 and total milled stocks at 6.2 million (9.1 million

cwt on a rough-equivalent basis). Total rice stocks on a rough-equivalent basis are 155.9

million, down 15 percent from a year earlier. Long-grain stocks as of December 1 are estimated

at 96.9 million (rough-equivalent basis) and combined medium- and short-grain stocks at 56.2

million.

Rice 2011/12 domestic and residual use is lowered 3.0 million cwt to 124.0 million cwt—all in

the long-grain class. Long-grain domestic and residual use is projected at 89.0 million cwt, and

combined medium- and short-grain at 35.0 million. The decrease in domestic and residual use

is implied from the higher-than-expected December 1 stocks estimate. All rice exports are

lowered 1.0 million cwt to 90.0 million—all in the long-grain class. The pace of exports and sales

of long-grain rice is lagging based on U.S. Bureau of Census data through October and U.S.

Export Sales data through December. Long-grain exports to the Western Hemisphere have

been lagging due to competition from South America, principally Brazil. Additionally, long-grain

WASDE-502-3

exports to the Middle East have been lagging due to strong competition from other suppliers.

Conversely, the pace of sales of combined medium- and short-grain rice is supportive of the

current export forecast. The 2011/12 rough rice export projection is lowered 1.0 million cwt to

33.0 million, while exports of combined milled and brown rice are unchanged at 57.0 million cwt

(rough-equivalent basis). All rice ending stocks for 2011/12 are projected at 38.5 million cwt, up

0.9 million from last month, but down 10.0 million from 2010/11. Long-grain rice ending stocks

are forecast at 20.6 million cwt, up 2.9 million from last month, but a decrease of 15.1 million

from the previous year. Combined medium- and short-grain rice ending stocks are projected at

15.2 million cwt, 2.0 million below last month, but an increase of 5.1 million from 2010/11.

The 2011/12 long-grain, season-average farm price range is projected at $13.50 to $14.50 per

cwt, unchanged from last month, while the combined medium- and short-grain farm price range

is projected at $15.00 to $16.00 per cwt, down 50 cents per cwt on each end. The all rice

season-average farm price is forecast at $13.80 to $14.80 per cwt, down 20 cents per cwt on

both ends of the range.

Global 2011/12 rice production, consumption, and ending stocks are raised slightly, and trade is

lowered from a month ago. The increase in global rice production of 0.6 million tons to a record

461.4 million tons is due primarily to larger forecast crops for Bangladesh and Cambodia, which

are partially offset by reductions for Brazil, Pakistan, North Korea, and the United States.

Larger forecast Aus and Aman seasonal rice crops in Bangladesh led to the forecast record

crop at 34.0 million tons, up 1.0 million from a month ago. Global domestic disappearance

(includes post-harvest losses) is raised mostly due to increases for Cambodia and Thailand.

Global trade is lowered as import forecasts are reduced for Bangladesh, the Philippines, and

Russia. Export 2011/12 forecasts are lowered for Brazil, Thailand, and the United States and

raised for Cambodia. Global 2011/12 ending stocks are forecast at 100.1 million tons, up 0.6

million from last month, an increase of 2.9 million from 2010/11, and the largest stocks since

2002/03. Global ending stocks are up primarily due to increases for Bangladesh, Thailand, and

the United States, which are partially offset by reductions for the Philippines and Brazil.

DISCLAIMER: This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation by Commodity & Derivative Adv. The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Read Entire Disclaimer.

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