This month’s 2011/12 U.S. cotton estimates include slightly lower production andlower exports, resulting in a net increase in ending stocks. Production is lowered 153,000
bales, as a reduction for upland cotton in Texas is partially offset by higher estimated extra long
staple (ELS) cotton production. Domestic mill use is unchanged. Exports are reduced 300,000
bales to 11.0 million due to lower U.S. supplies and strong competition from foreign exports.
Ending stocks are raised to 3.7 million bales, equivalent to 25 percent of total use. The forecast
marketing-year average price received by producers of 86 to 94 cents per pound is narrowed 1
cent on each end of the range.
The world 2011/12 cotton estimates show slightly lower production compared with last month,
with consumption reduced about 1 percent. Production is reduced mainly in India and the
United States. Consumption is estimated 1.0 million bales lower for China, as the substantial
accumulation of cotton in the national reserve is expected to support prices and constrain mill
use. Consumption also is reduced for Thailand. World ending stocks are raised 700,000 bales
to 58.4 million. The forecast stocks-to-use ratio of 53 percent is above both the 5- and 10-year
averages.
