report 15 million bushels above last month’sprojection. Feed and residual disappearance, seed use, and exports are all lowered slightly for
2011/12. Production for 2012/13 is reduced 10 million bushels as a 14-million-bushel reduction in
winter wheat is only partly offset by higher forecast spring wheat. Among the Hard Red Winter
wheat states, lower production for Texas, Colorado, Oklahoma, and Montana is only partly offset
by increases for Kansas and Nebraska. For the Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat states, increases
for Ohio, Illinois, and Indiana are mostly offset by reductions in the southern SRW-producing
states.
Total U.S. wheat use for 2012/13 is projected 35 million bushels higher. Domestic U.S. food use
for 2012/13 is raised 5 million bushels on expectations of lower flour extraction rates for this
year’s crop. Projected feed and residual use is lowered 20 million bushels, with higher prices and
stronger export demand. Exports are projected 50 million bushels higher with reduced
competition from Black Sea exporters. Ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected 30 million
bushels lower. The projected range for the 2012/13 season average farm price is raised 60 cents
on both ends to $6.20 to $7.40 per bushel, supported by sharply higher corn and soybean prices.
This compares with the record $7.24 per bushel reported for 2011/12.
Global wheat supplies for 2012/13 are reduced 5.1 million tons with lower world production more
than offsetting a 1.6-million-ton increase in beginning stocks. World production is lowered 6.7
million tons with reductions for Russia, Kazakhstan, and China accounting for most of the
reduction. Russia production is lowered 4.0 million tons with lower expected yields for winter
wheat and lower area and yield prospects for spring wheat. Kazakhstan production is lowered
2.0 million tons as persistent June heat and dryness have also reduced production prospects.
China production is reduced 2.0 million tons reflecting government indications of lower yields.
Canada production is also lowered slightly, down 0.4 million tons, based on lower reported
plantings in the latest official survey by Statistics Canada. EU-27 production is raised 2.1 million
tons with increases for France, Germany, and Hungary more than offsetting a reduction for
Poland.
Global wheat consumption for 2012/13 is lowered 1.8 million tons mostly reflecting lower
expected wheat feeding in Kazakhstan, Australia, and the United States. Partly offsetting are
small increases in wheat feed and residual use for EU-27 and South Korea. Global wheat trade
is lowered slightly with imports lowered for China, Indonesia, and Uzbekistan. Partly offsetting is
an increase in imports for Iran. Exports are reduced 4.0 million tons for Russia and 1.5 million
