Reduced supplies and higher prices are expected to sharply lower 2012/13 corn usage with the
biggest reduction for feed and residual disappearance, projected down 650 million bushels.
Food, seed, and industrial use is also projected lower, down 105 million bushels, mostly reflecting
a 100-million-bushel reduction in corn used to produce ethanol. Exports are projected 300 million
bushels lower as tight supplies, higher prices, and strong competition from South American
exporters limit U.S. shipments. A 52-million-bushel increase in beginning stocks and a 15-
million-bushel increase in imports offset only a small portion of the expected reduction in this
year’s crop. Ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected at 1.2 billion bushels, down 698 million from
last month’s projection. The season average 2012/13 farm price for corn is projected at $5.40 to
$6.40 per bushel, up sharply from $4.20 to $5.00 per bushel in June.
Trade changes to the 2011/12 corn balance sheet boost projected 2011/12 ending stocks.
Imports are raised 2 million bushels based on the latest trade data. Exports are projected 50
million bushels lower reflecting the slowing pace of old-crop sales and shipments. The season
average 2011/12 farm price for corn is projected at $6.10 to $6.30 per bushel, up from $5.95 to
$6.25 per bushel last month, as cash and futures prices have soared since early June on
intensifying drought and heat across the Midwest.
Global coarse grain supplies for 2012/13 are lowered 47.6 million tons mostly reflecting the 46.2-
million-ton projected reduction in the U.S. corn crop. Partly offsetting is a 1.3-million-ton increase
in EU-27 corn production, mostly reflecting higher reported area, and a 0.4-million-ton increase in
Canada corn, also on higher reported area. Other important 2012/13 coarse grain production
changes include a 1.5-million-ton reduction for Ukraine barley, a 1.0-million-ton reduction for
Russia barley, a 0.5-million-ton reduction for Canada barley, and a 0.3-million-ton reduction for
Canada oats. Brazil 2011/12 corn production is raised again this month, up 1.0 million tons,
based on the latest reports from national and state statistical agencies.
Global 2012/13 coarse grain trade is projected lower this month mostly reflecting lower corn
exports from the United States. Corn imports are lowered 2.0 million tons each for China and
EU-27, 0.5 million tons each for Japan and South Korea, and 0.3 million tons for Mexico. Global
barley trade is also lowered with Ukraine exports down 0.5 million tons and Russia and Canada
exports each down 0.2 million tons. Barley exports for Australia and Argentina are raised 0.3
million tons and 0.2 million tons, respectively. Global corn consumption drops 22.9 million tons
with most of the decline in the United States. Corn consumption is also lowered 0.8 million tons
for India and 0.5 million tons each for Japan and South Korea. Global corn ending stocks are
projected 21.7 million tons lower with the United States accounting for 17.7 million tons of the
decline. Stocks are also lowered for China, Brazil, EU-27, and Mexico.