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WASDE - Beans

Jul 11, 2012

OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 2012/13 is projected at 92.7 million tons, down 4.2

million from last month, with lower soybean production accounting for most of the change.

Soybean production is projected at 3.050 billion bushels, down 155 million as increased

harvested area is more than offset by reduced yields. Harvested area, estimated at 75.3 million

acres in the June 29 Acreage report, is 2.3 million above the June projection. The soybean yield

is projected at 40.5 bushels per acre, down 3.4 bushels from last month. The drop reflects

sharply declining crop conditions resulting from limited rainfall since early April coupled with

excessive heat across much of the producing area in late June and early July. Soybean supplies

are 160 million bushels below last month’s forecast due to lower beginning stocks and reduced

production. Soybean crush is projected at 1.61 billion bushels, down 35 million reflecting the

impact of higher soybean meal prices on meal exports and domestic disappearance. Soybean

exports for 2012/13 are reduced 115 million bushels to 1.37 billion reflecting lower U.S. supplies.

Increased exports from South America and Canada partly offset reduced U.S. exports. Soybean

ending stocks are projected at 130 million bushels, down 10 million.

U.S. soybean crush for 2011/12 is raised 15 million bushels to 1.675 billion reflecting strongerthan-

expected domestic soybean meal use. Soybean exports for 2011/12 are projected at 1.34

billion bushels, up 5 million, reflecting strong late-season sales and increased imports for China.

Seed use is raised and residual is reduced based on indications from the June 29 Acreage and


Grain Stocks reports, respectively. Soybean ending stocks for 2011/12 are projected at 170

million bushels, down 5 million.

Prices for soybeans and soybean meal for 2012/13 are raised this month. The U.S. season

average soybean price is projected at $13.00 to $15.00 per bushel, up $1.00 on both ends of the

range. Soybean meal prices are projected at $365 to $395 per short ton, up $30 on both ends of

the range. The soybean oil price projection is unchanged at 52.5 to 56.5 cents per pound.

Global oilseed production for 2012/13 is projected at 465.7 million tons, down 5.1 million from last

month. Lower soybean, cottonseed, and sunflowerseed production estimates are only partly

offset by increases for peanuts and rapeseed. Global soybean production is projected at 267.2

million tons, down 3.9 million mostly due to lower production in the United States. Higher

soybean production for Canada resulting from increased area partly offsets the U.S. reduction.

Rapeseed production is raised for Canada due to increased harvested area reflecting record

plantings reported by Statistics Canada. Sunflowerseed production is reduced for Russia based

on indications from planting progress data reported by Russia’s Ministry of Agriculture. Other

changes include reduced rapeseed production for Russia and increased peanut, canola, and

sunflowerseed production for the United States. Global oilseed ending stocks for 2012/13 are

projected at 63.1 million tons, down 2.7 million as reduced supplies are only partly offset by lower

crush. Lower soybean stocks in the United States and South America account for most of the


DISCLAIMER: This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation by Commodity & Derivative Adv. The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Read Entire Disclaimer.

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