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WASDE - Wheat

Aug 10, 2012

WHEAT: U.S. wheat supplies for 2012/13 are raised 54 million bushels with higher forecast

production and an increase in projected imports. Production is forecast 44 million bushels higher

with increased yields for winter wheat, durum, and other spring wheat. Feed and residual use is

projected 20 million bushels higher, reflecting the tighter supply situation for corn. Ending stocks

for 2012/13 are projected 34 million bushels higher. The projected range for the 2012/13 seasonaverage

farm price is raised substantially to $7.60 to $9.00 per bushel, compared with $6.20 to

$7.40 per bushel last month, as tighter foreign wheat supplies and sharply higher corn prices raise

price prospects for the remainder of the marketing year.

Global wheat supplies for 2012/13 are projected 2.1 million tons lower mostly reflecting a 3.7-

million-ton reduction in foreign production. A small increase in 2012/13 world beginning stocks is

partly offsetting with 2011/12 updates to trade and use for a number of countries. Lower expected

production in the FSU-12 accounts for most of this month’s decline in world output. Production is

lowered 6.0 million tons for Russia on reduced area and yield prospects due to July heat and

dryness across most of the spring wheat growing areas. Spring wheat in adjoining areas of

Kazakhstan was also affected by the same adverse weather reducing production prospects 2.0

million tons. Other reductions this month include a 0.8-million-ton reduction for Turkey based on

lower reported yields, a 0.5-million-ton reduction for Argentina reflecting lower expected area, a 0.3-

million-ton reduction for Syria, and a 0.2-million-ton reduction for EU-27. Production is raised 2.9

million tons for India, 2.0 million tons for Ukraine, and 0.4 million tons each for Canada and

Uzbekistan.

Global wheat consumption for 2012/13 is raised 3.2 million tons as a number of countries are

expected to shift some of their livestock and poultry feeding from corn to wheat. Wheat feeding is

raised 1.0 million tons each for EU-27 and Ukraine, 0.5 million tons each for South Korea and

Vietnam, 0.3 million tons for Israel, and 0.2 million tons each for India and Thailand. Partly

offsetting is a 0.5-million-ton reduction for Russia with lower expected production.

Global wheat imports for 2012/13 are raised with increases for several countries, in part, to support

higher wheat feeding. Imports are raised 0.5 million tons each for EU-27, South Korea, and

Vietnam, and raised 0.3 million tons for Israel. Imports are also raised 0.3 million tons for Brazil.

Global 2012/13 exports are raised, but much of the shift among countries also reflects reduced

export prospects for Russia, which is lowered 4.0 million tons. Exports are raised 2.0 million tons

for Ukraine, 1.0 million tons each for Canada and EU-27, 0.5 million tons each for Australia, Brazil,

and Pakistan. Exports are lowered 0.7 million tons for Argentina, 0.5 million tons for Turkey, and

0.2 million tons for Uruguay. World ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected 5.3 million tons lower

at 177.2 million.

DISCLAIMER: This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation by Commodity & Derivative Adv. The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Read Entire Disclaimer.

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