report. The U.S. sorghum yield is forecast 16.3 bushels peracre lower at 48.6 bushels as drought stressed sorghum from the Central Plains to the Corn Belt.
Sorghum harvested area is also lowered slightly.
U.S. corn production for 2012/13 is forecast at 10.8 billion bushels, the lowest since 2006/07.
Relatively small increases in carryin and imports only partly offset this month’s substantial reduction
in crop size. Ending stocks for 2011/12 are projected 118 million bushels higher with lower
expected exports, reduced corn use for ethanol, and a small increase in imports. Imports for
2012/13 are also raised, up 45 million bushels to 75 million, reflecting strong domestic corn prices
and competitively priced foreign supplies. Total U.S. corn supplies for 2012/13 are projected down
2.0 billion bushels and at a 9-year low.
This month’s large reduction in U.S. corn supplies and the sharply higher price outlook are
expected to further reduce 2012/13 corn usage. Total use is projected 1.5 billion bushels lower and
at 11.2 billion would be a 6-year low. The biggest reduction again this month is for feed and
residual disappearance, projected down 725 million bushels. Food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use
is also projected lower, down 470 million bushels, mostly reflecting a 400-million-bushel reduction
in corn used to produce ethanol. Reductions in other food and industrial uses account for the
remainder of the FSI decline. Ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected at 650 million bushels, 533
million lower and the smallest carryout since 1995/96. The 2012/13 season-average farm price for
corn is projected at a record $7.50 to $8.90 per bushel, up sharply from the $5.40 to $6.40 per
bushel projected in July. Projected farm prices for the other feed grains are also raised.
Global coarse grain supplies for 2012/13 are reduced 56.5 million tons mostly reflecting the
forecast 55.7-million-ton reduction in the U.S. corn crop. Larger 2012/13 corn beginning stocks in
the United States and Brazil partly offset lower U.S. and foreign coarse grain production. Brazil
corn beginning stocks are raised 2.8 million tons based on higher reported production for 2011/12.
Foreign corn production for 2012/13 is mostly unchanged with increases for China, Argentina,
Brazil, Mexico, and South Africa mostly offset by reductions for EU-27, Ukraine, India, Serbia,
Russia, Croatia, Moldova, and Canada. Foreign sorghum production is lowered 0.3 million tons
with a reduction for India. Reductions in barley production in FSU-12, EU-27, and Turkey lower
global barley production 1.1 million tons. A 2.5-million-ton reduction in India millet output also
lowers world coarse grain supplies.
Global 2012/13 corn trade is projected sharply lower this month in response to tighter U.S. supplies
and higher prices. Corn imports are lowered for China, EU-27, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea,
Mexico, Vietnam, Israel, Colombia, Peru, and Syria. In addition to the United States, corn exports
are reduced for Ukraine, EU-27, and Serbia. Partly offsetting are export increases for Argentina,
Brazil, South Africa, and Canada. Global corn consumption is projected 38.9 million tons lower with
the United States accounting for more than three-fourths of the reduction. Foreign corn feeding
drops 8.8 million tons with only part of the decline offset by higher wheat feeding. Corn feeding is
lowered for EU-27, India, Canada, Japan, South Korea, Russia, Ukraine, Vietnam, Israel, and
Indonesia. Global corn ending stocks are projected 10.8 million tons lower with increases for
China, Brazil, and Argentina only partly making up for the large reduction in the United States and
smaller reductions in a number of other countries.
