projection, but up nearly 2 percent from last year. Long-grain production is forecast at 132.1 million
cwt, down 1 percent from last month, while combined medium- and short-grain production is
forecast at 57.9 million, up less than 1 percent from a month ago. The all rice import projection is
lowered 0.5 million cwt to 21.0 million due in part to an expected slower pace of long-grain imports
from South and Southeast Asia, a continuation of the trend observed in 2011/12. All rice beginning
stocks for 2012/13 are lowered 1.0 million cwt to 33.5 million because of an increase in the 2011/12
export estimate to 102.0 million.
U.S. total rice use for 2012/13 is projected at 216.0 million cwt, down 2.0 million cwt from last
month. All rice domestic and residual use is lowered 2.0 million cwt to 124.0 million, all in longgrain.
The all rice export projection is unchanged at 92.0 million cwt, however, the rough rice
component is raised 1.0 million and offset by a 1.0 million reduction in combined milled- and brownexports
(rough-equivalent basis). The long-grain and combined medium- and short-grain export
projections are unchanged at 60.0 million cwt and 32.0 million, respectively. U.S. all rice ending
stocks for 2012/13 are projected at 28.4 million cwt, down 0.5 million from last month, and 15
percent below the previous year.
The 2012/13 long-grain U.S. season-average farm price is projected at $13.50 to $14.50 per cwt,
up 50 cents per cwt on each end of the range. The combined medium- and short-grain price is
projected at $15.50 to $16.50 per cwt, unchanged from a month ago. The 2012/13 all rice price is
projected at $14.10 to $15.10 per cwt, up 30 cents per cwt on each end of the range. A smaller
crop and tighter supplies, particularly for long-grain rice, are expected to support prices. The all
rice stocks-to-use ratio at 13.2 percent in 2012/13 is the lowest since 2007/08, and the long-grain
rice stocks-to-use ratio at 10.6 percent is the lowest since 2003/04.
Lower projected global 2012/13 total supply more than offsets a slight decrease in total use
resulting in an expected decrease in ending stocks. Global production is lowered 1.9 million tons to
463.2 million, due primarily to forecast reductions for India, Brazil, and North Korea, which are
partially offset by increases for China and South Korea. Beginning stocks are increased 0.8 million
tons due to a 1.0-million-ton increase for India, which is partially offset by reductions for Brazil and
Indonesia. World consumption is reduced 0.4 million tons. A 1.0-million-ton increase in China
offsets an identical reduction for India. Consumption forecasts are also lowered for Brazil, North
Korea, and the United States, partially offset by an increase for Indonesia. Global trade is changed
little from a month ago. Global ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected at 101.8 million tons, down
0.7 million from last month, and a decrease of 3.2 million from the previous year. The largest
stocks reductions for 2012/13 are for Brazil and Indonesia, each just over 0.3 million tons.
