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WASDE - Beans

Aug 10, 2012

OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 2012/13 is projected at 83.4 million tons, down 9.4 million

from last month, as a lower soybean production estimate is only partly offset by higher crops of

peanuts and cottonseed. Soybean production for 2012/13 is projected at 2.7 billion bushels, down

358 million due to lower harvested area and yields. Harvested area is projected at 74.6 million

acres, down 0.7 million from the July projection. The first survey-based soybean yield forecast of

36.1 bushels per acre is 4.4 bushels below last month’s projection and 5.4 bushels below last

year’s yield. Soybean supplies for 2012/13 are projected 12 percent below last month to a 9-year

low on lower production and reduced beginning stocks. Soybean exports are reduced 260 million

bushels to 1.11 billion bushels. Soybean crush is also reduced as higher prices reduce domestic

use and prospective exports for both soybean meal and oil. Soybean ending stocks are projected

at 115 million bushels, down 15 million.

U.S. changes for 2011/12 include increased soybean crush and exports and reduced ending

stocks. Crush is increased 15 million bushels to 1.69 billion reflecting increased exports and

domestic use of soybean meal. Soybean exports are increased 10 million to 1.35 billion bushels


reflecting strong shipments in recent weeks. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 145 million

bushels, down 25 million.

Soybean and product prices for 2012/13 are all raised to record levels this month, reflecting the

impact of sharply reduced soybean and corn production. The U.S. season-average soybean price

is projected at $15.00 to $17.00 per bushel, up $2.00 on both ends. Soybean meal prices are

projected at $460 to $490 per short ton compared with $365 to $395 last month. Soybean oil prices

are projected at 53 to 57 cents per pound, up 0.5 cents on both ends.

Global oilseed production for 2012/13 is projected at 457.3 million tons, down 8.5 million tons from

last month. Reductions for soybeans, sunflowerseed, peanuts, and cottonseed are only partly

offset by increased rapeseed production. Lower soybean production is projected for the United

States, Canada, and EU-27 due to lower yields resulting from hot, dry weather. Soybean

production is raised for Brazil and Paraguay as producers are expected to respond to sharply

higher prices with increased plantings. Brazil’s soybean production is projected up 3 million tons at

a record 81 million. Sunflowerseed production is reduced for EU-27, Ukraine, and Moldova due to

the effects of hot, dry weather during the reproductive stage of the crops. Other changes include

higher rapeseed production for EU-27 and Ukraine, lower rapeseed production for China and

Australia, lower peanut production for India and Indonesia, and lower cottonseed production for


Global oilseed and meal production, trade, and consumption for 2012/13 are all reduced this month

reflecting the impact of reduced oilseed supplies and higher prices. Projected soybean imports for

China are reduced 1.5 million tons to 59.5 million as domestic soybean stocks contribute a larger

component of soybean meal consumption. Soybean exports for Brazil and Argentina are forecast

higher but only partly offset a reduction for the United States.

DISCLAIMER: This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation by Commodity & Derivative Adv. The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Read Entire Disclaimer.

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