reflecting strong shipments in recent weeks. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 145 million
bushels, down 25 million.
Soybean and product prices for 2012/13 are all raised to record levels this month, reflecting the
impact of sharply reduced soybean and corn production. The U.S. season-average soybean price
is projected at $15.00 to $17.00 per bushel, up $2.00 on both ends. Soybean meal prices are
projected at $460 to $490 per short ton compared with $365 to $395 last month. Soybean oil prices
are projected at 53 to 57 cents per pound, up 0.5 cents on both ends.
Global oilseed production for 2012/13 is projected at 457.3 million tons, down 8.5 million tons from
last month. Reductions for soybeans, sunflowerseed, peanuts, and cottonseed are only partly
offset by increased rapeseed production. Lower soybean production is projected for the United
States, Canada, and EU-27 due to lower yields resulting from hot, dry weather. Soybean
production is raised for Brazil and Paraguay as producers are expected to respond to sharply
higher prices with increased plantings. Brazil’s soybean production is projected up 3 million tons at
a record 81 million. Sunflowerseed production is reduced for EU-27, Ukraine, and Moldova due to
the effects of hot, dry weather during the reproductive stage of the crops. Other changes include
higher rapeseed production for EU-27 and Ukraine, lower rapeseed production for China and
Australia, lower peanut production for India and Indonesia, and lower cottonseed production for
India.
Global oilseed and meal production, trade, and consumption for 2012/13 are all reduced this month
reflecting the impact of reduced oilseed supplies and higher prices. Projected soybean imports for
China are reduced 1.5 million tons to 59.5 million as domestic soybean stocks contribute a larger
component of soybean meal consumption. Soybean exports for Brazil and Argentina are forecast
higher but only partly offset a reduction for the United States.
