: The 2012/13 U.S. wheat balance sheet is unchanged this month; however, small by-class
adjustments are made to projected exports and stocks. Projected exports for Hard Red Winter
wheat are lowered 25 million bushels with Hard Red Spring and White wheat exports raised 15
million bushels and 10 million bushels, respectively. Corresponding changes are made to projected
ending stocks for these three classes. The projected range for the 2012/13 season-average farm
price is lowered to $7.50 to $8.70 per bushel compared with $7.60 to $9.00 per bushel last month.
Prices reported for the summer months, when producers typically market nearly half the crop, have
remained well below cash bids and futures prices, suggesting substantial forward pricing by
producers earlier in the year.
Global wheat supplies for 2012/13 are projected 3.1 million tons lower mostly due to lower expected
production in Russia. An increase in foreign beginning stocks partly offsets the projected 4.1-millionton
reduction in world wheat output. Beginning stocks are raised for Canada and Egypt, but lowered
for Argentina. Production for Russia is reduced 4.0 million tons with lower reported area and
reduced yields as harvest results confirm additional drought and heat damage to both the winter and
spring wheat crops. Production is also lowered 0.5 million tons for adjoining Kazakhstan, which
experienced the same adverse drought and heat during July and August that affected spring wheat
in the central and eastern growing regions of Russia. EU-27 production is lowered 0.5 million tons
mostly reflecting lower expected yields in the United Kingdom. Ukraine production is raised 0.5
million tons based on higher reported yields. Production for Afghanistan is raised 0.4 million tons
mostly on higher reported area.
Global wheat consumption for 2012/13 is lowered 2.6 million tons mostly on lower wheat feed and
residual use in Russia and Kazakhstan. Food use is also lowered slightly for both countries with
additional reductions projected for food use in Egypt and Nigeria. Food use is raised for
Afghanistan, Iran, and Libya.
Global wheat trade for 2012/13 is lowered slightly this month with imports reduced for China, Egypt,
EU-27, Israel, and Nigeria. Import increases for Turkey and Iran limit the global decline in trade.
Exports are reduced 2.0 million tons for Ukraine based on the recent agreement between
government officials and grain traders to limit shipments because of concerns about tightening
domestic supplies. Higher expected exports for Brazil, EU-27, and Turkey mostly make up for the
World ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected 0.5 million tons lower with changes to a number of
countries. The largest declines in stocks are for Russia, EU-27, China, Brazil, and Argentina. The
largest increases are for Ukraine, Canada, Iran, and Turkey.