WASD - Corn

WASDE-510-2

offset by increases elsewhere, particularly across the South where an early harvest is boosting

available supplies.

U.S. corn supplies for 2012/13 are projected 108 million bushels higher as an increase in expected

beginning stocks more than offsets lower production this month. Exports for 2011/12 are lowered 10

million bushels reflecting the slowing pace of shipments during August. Feed and residual use for

2011/12 is lowered 150 million bushels based on the record level of crop maturity and harvest

progress as of September 1. State-level crop progress reports indicate that nearly 11 percent of the

2012 corn crop was harvested before the September 1 start of the 2012/13 marketing year. Based

on state-by-state production forecasts from the September 12 Crop Production report, nearly 1.2

billion bushels of new-crop corn are estimated to have been available for use before the end of the

old-crop 2011/12 marketing year. This is up more than 700 million bushels from a year ago. Early

new-crop corn use is expected to displace use of 2011 old-crop corn and boost old-crop inventories

on September 1. As a result, early new-crop usage reduces the feed and residual calculation in the

balance sheet. (For a more complete discussion see Westcott and Norton, Implications of an Early

Corn Crop Harvest for Feed and Residual Use Estimates, FDS-12F-01, Economic Research Service,

USDA, July 2012, www.ers.usda.gov/media/828975/fds12f01.pdf .)

Total U.S. corn use for 2012/13 is raised this month with higher expected feed and residual

disappearance more than offsetting lower projected exports. Feed and residual disappearance is

projected 75 million bushels higher, in part reflecting higher expected September-December

disappearance with the expected rise in early new-crop usage during the 2011/12 marketing year.

Exports for 2012/13 are projected 50 million bushels lower with increased competition from lowerpriced

South American supplies. Ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected 83 million bushels higher

at 733 million. The projected range for the corn season-average farm price is lowered 30 cents on

both ends of the range to $7.20 to $8.60 per bushel.

Global coarse grain supplies for 2012/13 are projected 4.0 million tons lower despite higher

beginning stocks of corn in the United States and barley in Canada. Reduced corn production

prospects for EU-27, Serbia, and Canada add to the decline in the United States to reduce world

corn output 8.0 million tons. Higher barley production for EU-27 and Canada mostly offset

reductions in oats, barley, rye, and millet production in Russia. Corn production is lowered 4.4

million tons for EU-27 with yield reductions for France, Italy, Romania, and Hungary as extended

drought and heat in August further reduced production prospects across southern Europe. Serbia

production is also lowered 1.2 million tons reflecting the same adverse weather conditions. Canada

corn production is lowered 1.1 million tons based on the latest survey results from Statistics Canada.

Global 2012/13 corn exports are lowered 1.8 million tons this month with the largest reduction for the

United States. Corn exports are also lowered for Serbia and EU-27. Partly offsetting these

reductions is a 1.0-million-ton increase for Brazil exports. Lower barley exports from Russia are

more than offset with increases for Canada, Ukraine, and EU-27. Foreign coarse grain consumption

is lowered mostly on lower corn usage. Corn feeding is lowered 4.0 million tons for the EU-27, 1.0

million tons for Canada, and 0.4 million tons for Serbia. Corn feeding is raised 0.8 million tons for

Egypt. Barley feeding is raised 1.0 million tons for EU-27, 0.9 million tons for Canada, and 0.2

million tons for Iran. Barley feeding is lowered 0.5 million tons for Ukraine, and 0.2 million tons for

Russia. Global corn ending stocks are projected 0.6 million tons higher with the increase for the

United States partly offset by a reduction for Brazil.