report released on August 27. Theimport projection is lowered 1.5 million cwt to 19.5 million, all in long-grain, as the increase in
production and stocks will reduce imports.
Domestic use and exports are raised for 2012/13. Domestic and residual use is increased 2.0 million
cwt to 126.0 million, largely because of a substantial increase in supplies, particularly for long-grain
rice. All rice exports for 2012/13 are projected at 100.0 million cwt, up 8.0 million cwt from last
month, all in long-grain rice. Larger supplies, particularly for long-grain rice, will likely pressure
prices and make U.S. rice more competitive. All rice ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected at 30.9
million cwt, up 2.4 million from last month, but down 10.2 million from 2011/12.
The long-grain season-average farm price range is projected at $12.50 to $13.50 per cwt, down
$1.00 per cwt on both ends of the range from last month compared to $13.40 per cwt for 2011/12.
The combined medium- and short-grain farm price range is projected at $16.50 to $17.50 per cwt, up
$1.00 per cwt on each end of the range from last month compared to a revised $16.50 per cwt for
2011/12. The 2012/13 all rice season-average farm price is forecast at $13.70 to $14.70 per cwt,
down 40 cents per cwt on each end of the range from last month compared to a revised $14.30 per
cwt for 2011/12. Larger supplies of long-grain rice will pressure prices and tighter supplies of
combined medium- and short-grain rice will support prices.
Projected global 2012/13 rice supplies are raised more than the increase in use, resulting in a net
increase in ending stocks from a month ago. Beginning stocks are raised 0.7 million due mostly to
increases for Indonesia, Brazil, and the United States. Global rice production is projected at a near
record 464.2 million tons, up 1.0 million tons from last month, primarily due to larger expected crops
in China, the Philippines, EU-27, and the United States. China’s 2012/13 rice crop is increased 1.0
million tons to a record 143.0 million, as harvested area and average yield are raised. Global
consumption is raised 1.3 million tons from a month ago to a record 467.7 million tons due to
increases for China, the Philippines, and a number of smaller changes for other countries. Global
exports are raised from a month ago largely due to an increase in the United States, which is
partially offset by a decrease for Burma. Global ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected at 102.2
million tons, up 0.4 million from last month, but down 3.5 million from the previous year. Stocks are
raised for Brazil, China, Indonesia, the Philippines, and the United States, and lowered for Sri Lanka
and Pakistan.
