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WASD - Rice

Sep 12, 2012

RICE: U.S. 2012/13 rice supplies are increased 12.4 million cwt or 5 percent because of increases

in beginning stocks and production. U.S. rice production in 2012/13 is forecast at 196.3 million cwt,

up 6.3 million from last month due to both an increase in harvested area and yield. Harvested area

is estimated at 2.68 million acres, up 37,000 acres. The average yield is estimated at a record 7,334

pounds per acre, up 138 pounds per acre from last month, with large increases in Arkansas and

Mississippi. Long-grain rice production is forecast at 138.3 million cwt, up 6.2 million from last

WASDE-510-3

month. Combined medium- and short-grain production is forecast at 58.1 million cwt, up slightly from

a month ago. All rice beginning stocks for 2012/13 are raised 7.6 million cwt from last month to 41.1

million (rough-equivalent basis) based on USDA’s Rice Stocks report released on August 27. The

import projection is lowered 1.5 million cwt to 19.5 million, all in long-grain, as the increase in

production and stocks will reduce imports.

Domestic use and exports are raised for 2012/13. Domestic and residual use is increased 2.0 million

cwt to 126.0 million, largely because of a substantial increase in supplies, particularly for long-grain

rice. All rice exports for 2012/13 are projected at 100.0 million cwt, up 8.0 million cwt from last

month, all in long-grain rice. Larger supplies, particularly for long-grain rice, will likely pressure

prices and make U.S. rice more competitive. All rice ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected at 30.9

million cwt, up 2.4 million from last month, but down 10.2 million from 2011/12.

The long-grain season-average farm price range is projected at $12.50 to $13.50 per cwt, down

$1.00 per cwt on both ends of the range from last month compared to $13.40 per cwt for 2011/12.

The combined medium- and short-grain farm price range is projected at $16.50 to $17.50 per cwt, up

$1.00 per cwt on each end of the range from last month compared to a revised $16.50 per cwt for

2011/12. The 2012/13 all rice season-average farm price is forecast at $13.70 to $14.70 per cwt,

down 40 cents per cwt on each end of the range from last month compared to a revised $14.30 per

cwt for 2011/12. Larger supplies of long-grain rice will pressure prices and tighter supplies of

combined medium- and short-grain rice will support prices.

Projected global 2012/13 rice supplies are raised more than the increase in use, resulting in a net

increase in ending stocks from a month ago. Beginning stocks are raised 0.7 million due mostly to

increases for Indonesia, Brazil, and the United States. Global rice production is projected at a near

record 464.2 million tons, up 1.0 million tons from last month, primarily due to larger expected crops

in China, the Philippines, EU-27, and the United States. China’s 2012/13 rice crop is increased 1.0

million tons to a record 143.0 million, as harvested area and average yield are raised. Global

consumption is raised 1.3 million tons from a month ago to a record 467.7 million tons due to

increases for China, the Philippines, and a number of smaller changes for other countries. Global

exports are raised from a month ago largely due to an increase in the United States, which is

partially offset by a decrease for Burma. Global ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected at 102.2

million tons, up 0.4 million from last month, but down 3.5 million from the previous year. Stocks are

raised for Brazil, China, Indonesia, the Philippines, and the United States, and lowered for Sri Lanka

and Pakistan.

DISCLAIMER: This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation by Commodity & Derivative Adv. The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Read Entire Disclaimer.

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